About

YieldCurve AI turns 35+ years of U.S. monetary history into something you can actually watch. It's a free tool built for anyone who wants to understand how interest rates, the Federal Reserve, and asset markets interact over time — without needing a Bloomberg terminal.

The Yield Curve

The U.S. Treasury yield curve plots the interest rates on government bonds across different maturities — from 3 months out to 30 years. Under normal conditions, investors demand higher yields for tying up their money longer, so the curve slopes upward.

When the Federal Reserve aggressively raises short-term rates, the front end of the curve can rise above long-term yields, causing the curve to invert. An inverted curve signals that markets expect slower growth and eventual rate cuts ahead.

The most closely watched spread is the 2s10s — the difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield. A sustained inversion of this spread has preceded every U.S. recession since the 1970s, typically by 12–24 months.

What to Look For

Curve shape — steep curves reflect easy monetary policy and growth expectations. Flat or inverted curves signal tightening and potential stress ahead.
Fed policy band — the overlay shows the Federal Reserve's target rate range, giving you context for why the curve is moving.
RRP usage — overnight reverse repo activity reflects excess liquidity in the financial system. The spike and unwind from 2021–2023 was historically unprecedented.
Asset response — watch how equities, gold, bonds, and Bitcoin behaved during each rate cycle. The lag between inversion and market stress is different every time.

Notable Moments in the Data

1989 – 1990

Gulf War RecessionDeep inversion ahead of the early '90s contraction. The curve re-steepened sharply as the Fed cut rates.

1998 – 2000

Dot-com Peak & InversionThe 2s10s inverted ~50 bps as the Fed hiked into the equity bubble. Equities topped out in March 2000.

2005 – 2007

Pre-GFC InversionThe curve flattened and inverted as housing cracks appeared. The 2s10s stayed inverted for nearly two years.

2019

Brief InversionA short-lived inversion driven by trade-war uncertainty. COVID made any recession timing analysis moot.

2022 – 2023

Deepest Inversion in 40 YearsThe 2s10s reached −108 bps — the most inverted since 1981. A direct consequence of the Fed's fastest tightening cycle since Volcker.

AI Insights

The ✨ Insights button on the yield chart generates a macro "field note" for any point in the timeline using GPT-4o. Each note interprets the current yield curve regime, selected asset context, and historical percentiles to give you a structured read on what the bond market was signaling — and whether the equity or commodity market agreed. The model has access only to market data; no personal information is used.

Data Sources

U.S. Department of the Treasury↗— Daily par yield curve rates by tenor

Federal Reserve H.15 Release↗— Federal funds target rate and selected interest rates

Federal Reserve Bank of New York↗— Overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) award amounts

NBER Business Cycle Dating↗— Official U.S. recession start and end dates

Asset price data↗— SPX, NDQ, RTY, GOLD, TLT, BTC — sourced from public market data

Disclaimer

YieldCurve AI is an educational and research tool. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past market behavior is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research.

Built by

Correia Investments, LLC

San Diego, CA