Learn the yield curve
Plain-English explainers on the U.S. Treasury yield curve, inversions, the Federal Reserve, and the signals the bond market sends. Read the concepts here, then watch them play out on the interactive timeline.
What is an inverted yield curve?
An inverted yield curve is when short-term Treasury yields rise above long-term yields. Here's what causes it, why it's watched so closely, and what it has — and hasn't — predicted.
5 min readThe 2s10s spread, explained
The 2s10s spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year. Learn how to read it, why it goes negative, and what its sign tells you about the economy and Fed policy.
4 min readDoes the yield curve predict recessions?
The yield curve is one of the most reliable recession indicators in U.S. history — but it's a warning light, not a stopwatch. Here's the historical record and how to use it honestly.
6 min readHow the Federal Reserve shapes the yield curve
The Fed sets the front end of the yield curve directly through the federal funds rate, and influences the long end through expectations and QE. Here's how policy moves the curve.
5 min readWhat is the Fed's reverse repo (RRP) facility?
The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility absorbs excess cash from money markets and sets a floor under short-term rates. Here's what it does and why its 2021–2023 surge mattered.
5 min read